2004: The year of controlled spending?
Published: 31 Dec 2003 12:10 GMT
The NOP survey also highlights a disparity in confidence moving up the IT management ladder. Taken as a whole worldwide, CIOs, CEOs and other senior staff predict a growth rates of around 8 percent in IT spend compared to predictions of around 4 percent for IT managers. This difference may indicate that senior executives haven't actually told the rest of the organisation about plans to increase IT spending, NOP suggests.
But despite citing figures way above that of any other analyst organisation, NOP's Jameson is still cautious about the outlook for the next 12 months. "Big-ticket investment in emerging technologies looks likely to remain a hard sell for the foreseeable future," he says.
If a real recovery is on the cards next year, what technologies are companies going to be investing in and what trends will drive overall growth in tech spending?
Linux
A lot of noise is being made about desktop Linux, and with Sun now offering a complete package, companies might start to see it as a serious option rather than a bargaining tool for Microsoft licensing meetings. 2004 will be the year that Linux will reach "tipping point" as a low-cost operating platform -- for the first time making up over 10 percent of server sales in the US, according to IDC.
Broadband
With a current take-up rate of more than 45,000 a week, according to Oftel figures, there should be roughly 2 million extra broadband users in the UK by the end of next year, taking the total to 5 million. Broadband access worldwide will rise to around 40 percent of Internet homes, while 2004 will be the last year in which high-speed access will be in less than half of US homes.
Public sector investment
With private sector spending tentative at best, the vendors, consultants and service providers will continue to look to government projects for sustenance. Whitehall awarded contracts worth some worth some £8bn during the second half of 2003, according to a report from Goldman Sachs. The trend is set to continue into next year, as the 2005 deadline for joined-up government looms.
Networking/Telecommunications
Around a quarter of respondents to a recent survey from analyst IDC put networks and telecoms technology as the top priority for the next 12 months.
Security
Given the number of viruses and worms doing the rounds in 2003, it seems IT managers want to go into next year prepared for the worst. About a quarter of respondents to the NOP survey put software as warranting the biggest rise in investment through 2004, with a growth rate of about seven percent.
Utility Computing
IDC claims utility computing is a good long-term bet -- but for 2004, "Utility computing equals Futility Computing". There is still too much confusion about the meaning and value of the utility model and it's not until vendors move from "simple, broad visions of utility computing to segmented, solution-focused views" that real change will happen.
Wireless
Almost all mobile phones come with GPRS or CDMA2000 so there should be a decent population of terminals at which to target wireless data, according to analysts Ovum. After "huge technical teething troubles", mainstream 3G services and handsets should become more widespread, being adopted mainly by "power users" after higher speeds. The business model for public wireless LANs is still unclear but "2004 will give us answers to some of the questions" according to Ovum analyst Julian Hewitt.
WLAN in the enterprise stalled in 2003 but IDC predicts companies will begin to use the technology in small and temporary offices. Large office use will be limited to conference rooms and common areas.
Grid Computing
Grid computing will start competing with supercomputers as a new, inexpensive platform for solving intensive tasks, according to Gartner. This increase in server virtualisation will also help to improve server utilisation rates which should boost cost efficiencies. A recent UK government report cited a grid computing project as an example of the kind of innovative technology that warrants more public funding.
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