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Statistics mask tough job market

Ed Frauenheim CNET News.com

Published: 19 Aug 2004 16:40 BST

Unemployment is down and optimism is up for some tech professionals, according to federal statistics and a recent independent survey. But the numbers may be hiding ongoing troubles for US techies.

Just ask computer programmer Mark Roth, who got a pink slip this week from his employer, a small telecommunications company in Florida. Roth worked there for about four months after nearly three years without a job. The company may call him back if business improves, but he's anxious about his job prospects and the overall economy. "I'm not sanguine in any way, shape or form," he said.

The unemployment rate for computer and mathematical occupations -- a category that includes computer programmers, computer software engineers and computer scientists and systems analysts -- fell from 5.7 percent in the first half of 2003 to 5 percent in the first half of this year, according to the US Labor Department. Unemployment dropped even more dramatically for electrical and electronic engineers -- from 6.7 percent in the first half of 2003 to 3.1 percent in the first half of 2004.

But unemployment levels alone don't tell the whole story for workers still recovering from the dot-com bust. For example, the average number of people employed in computer and math jobs dropped by 72,000 from the first half of 2003 to the first half of this year, to 3,038,000. A similar trend occurred among electrical and electronic engineers over the same period. Their average employment fell by 39,000, to 339,000.

In other words, if employment and the jobless rate are both dropping, it may not mean better times in these tech-related fields. It may just mean that unemployed tech workers are giving up fruitless job searches.

"This implies that some workers in these occupations may have dropped out of the labour force possibly because they are discouraged and have given up looking for work," said Labor Department economist Steve Hipple. "This would lead to a decline in their unemployment rate because fewer are actively seeking a job."