Do tablets face a convertible future?
Published: 20 Oct 2005 19:45 BST
Hold on to your keyboard. Laptop computer screens that flip around to become convertible tablet PCs could be an increasingly common sight within the next three years.
With manufacturing prices dropping and Microsoft touting tablet PCs, shipments of the products are expected to hit 9.7 million units by 2008. That's up 708 percent from the 1.2 million units expected to ship this year, according to a forecast by market researchers at IDC. Convertible notebooks are expected to make up the majority of those shipments, IDC said.
The projected number of tablets is small compared with the overall number of notebooks. After all, 62.5 million notebooks are expected to ship this year, and that number is forecast by IDC to climb to 100.3 million in 2008.
If every one of those tablet PCs that ship in 2008 were actually a convertible notebook, fewer than one out of every 10 notebooks shipped would have tablet capabilities. Still, that's a big jump from the less than 2 percent share of notebook sales tablets now have.
Just as past hardware trends — from PDAs to flat-screen monitors — took years to claw out a share of the world's tech spending before really catching on, convertible laptops are still in that early stage where they have to be proven even to bleeding-edge buyers.
"Manufacturers and consumers are still trying to figure out what to do with tablets and if they make sense for their daily lives," said IDC analyst Richard Shim.
But it's fair to say the convertible notebook share of total laptop sales could increase as the years go by for one simple reason — price. Today, making a convertible laptop can cost $300 more than a typical notebook. But as manufacturers ramp up their tablet production during the next two years, that premium could drop to $75, said Roger Kay, an independent analyst.
Also, as PC manufacturers deal with constant pressure to reduce the prices of their basic models, tablet capabilities could well become one of those nifty features PC makers offer to up their profits.
Tablets come in two basic forms: notebooks with screens that flip around 180 degrees and lay flat over the keyboard to make a tablet, and so-called slate tablets, which look more like an Etch A Sketch toy. The slate-style devices weigh between 1.3kg and 1.8kg and can cost as little as £600. Convertible tablets weigh a bit more and retail for as little as £700, depending on features.
Companies like Gateway, which...
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