Tablet PCs: Is the writing on the wall?
Published: 01 Jul 2005 10:55 BST
Tablet PCs have enjoyed a brief resurgence of publicity since IBM and China’s Lenovo Group unveiled the first ThinkPad convertible notebook at the start of June.
But after having remained a decidedly niche product since Microsoft chairman Bill Gates launched the first prototypes at the Comdex trade show in Las Vegas in 2001 to great fanfare, the big question is will the IBM and Lenovo launch be enough to ignite more mainstream business interest?
Some analysts claim it will. Michael Gartenberg, vice-president and research director at Jupiter Research, says the X41 Tablet series is a no-compromise PC but with added tablet functionality as a bonus.
"This will kick-start the market and these products have the potential to move the market forward. As people become more aware that they can gain tablet functionality without any trade-offs such as battery life, we’ll start to see sales picking up during the second half of this year,” he says.
The IBM/Lenovo machines, the first to be released by the Chinese firm since it acquired IBM's PC business earlier this year, boast a six-hour battery life as opposed to the usual couple of hours, weigh under 2kg, and come with a standard ThinkPad image, which makes them easier to deploy. (See ZDNet Reviews for a sneak preview)
Gartenberg claims that, despite rumours to the contrary, the tablet PC is alive and well and being used. He claims the he potential market is equivalent to that of notebooks, but a key problem is that many end-users are simply unaware of that tablets even exist as retail outlets, among others, have failed to push them.
But Gartenberg's optimistic view of the future of tablets isn't shared by all analysts Andy Brown, IDC's programme manager for European mobile computers and devices, says that the handwriting recognition-based machines will comprise just one percent of the global notebook market in 2005, rising to a mere 2.4 percent by 2009.
Of a total market that saw 17.9 million notebooks sold in 2004, Brown adds, only 130,000 units comprised tablet PCs. Although sales are expected to increase to 230,000 this year, the amount is still peanuts when compared with predicted notebook sales of 22.8 million units.
Annette Jump, a principal analyst at Gartner, likewise believes that high levels of take-up are unlikely any time soon. For 2004, she valued the market in Europe, the Middle East and Africa at just $125,000 (£69,700), although, at 30 to 35 percent, she expects the sector to grow faster than the notebook market rate of 20 to 25 percent during 2005 and 2006.
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