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What the future holds for Google's Android

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Marguerite Reardon CNET News

Published: 06 Nov 2007 09:21 GMT

Consumers shouldn't expect Google's new mobile phone software to revolutionise their mobile phone experience overnight — or anytime soon.

On Monday, Google announced Android, a software platform designed to provide open access to mobile phones for application developers. The company also announced the Open Handset Alliance, a multinational alliance of 34 companies, including several chipmakers, handset manufacturers, and mobile operators that will be working together to develop handsets and services that leverage the new software.

A software development kit will be introduced next week, and consumers can expect to see the first Android handsets out on the market in the second half of 2008, Google chief executive Eric Schmidt said on Monday.

Rumours had been flying for months about Google's plans for the mobile market. And now that it's here, it's clear that Google has greater ambitions than simply building a new phone. Instead, the company is looking to transform the mobile industry by making it easy to develop new applications that can be pushed out to hundreds of handset models on dozens of carrier networks using free, open-source technology.

Google hopes to do to the mobile market what it has helped to do for the traditional internet, which is bring people closer to content on the web in a easy and organised way. At the most basic level this means making web surfing on a mobile phone look and feel a lot like it does on a PC at home.

Even if there is a tidal wave of new devices using the Android platform, they will still represent a relatively small portion of the overall market

Charles Golvin, Forrester Research

But despite its lofty ambitions, Android faces many obstacles. For one, mobile operators must be willing to allow the new, open devices on their networks. Android must also compete with a long list of mobile-operating systems already entrenched in the market.

"While I believe the effort by the Open Handset Alliance will have a significant impact on the market, I think it will build slowly over time," said Charles Golvin, an analyst with Forrester Research. "Even if there is a tidal wave of new devices using the Android platform, they will still represent a relatively small portion of the overall market."

Unlike the PC market of the late 1990s, the mobile market is fragmented and closed off. For the most part, mobile operators control what applications and features operate on the handsets that use their networks. This is completely different from the fixed internet, where it doesn't matter if you access the internet from a Dell or HP PC: you'll have a similar surfing experience.

Google is trying to overcome this hurdle by getting carriers around the globe involved in the Open Handset Alliance. So far, KDDI and NTT DoCoMo, two of the largest carriers in Japan, are on board.

European carriers Telecom Italia, Telefonica and T-Mobile are also signed up to be among the first carriers to offer Android phones. In the US, which is probably one of the most restrictive of all mobile markets, Google has managed to sign up two of the top four wireless operators, Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile USA.

Notably missing from the alliance are AT&T and Verizon Wireless — the largest operators in the US — which together account for about 52 percent of all mobile phone subscribers in the country.

Surprisingly, Verizon Wireless, known for being the most guarded of the major US operators, has reportedly been in talks with Google regarding the new open software platform.

"We haven't ruled out joining this group," said a spokesman for the company. "We support innovation that is consistent with the values of integrity of service, privacy, security and reliability. And we welcome the support of Google, handset makers and others for our goal of providing more open development of applications on mobile handsets."

By contrast, AT&T, which is often viewed as having a much more open strategy when it comes to what it allows on its network, kept the announcement at arm's length.

"Our focus is on delivering goods today," said a spokesman for AT&T, the largest mobile operator in the country. "I can't comment on what we might or might not do in the future. We offer people an incredible array of choices right now, and that's what our focus is at the moment."

Part of AT&T's hesitation to commit itself to the Google Alliance at this early stage could stem from its relationship with Apple. AT&T is the exclusive US operator selling…