Bob 'Ethernet' Metcalfe looks to the future
Published: 11 Oct 2004 15:45 BST
A lot of big companies are saying they have significant problems with the performance of their applications, be it CRM, ERP, SAP. Who is going to get hold of the software side, in the same way you got hold of networking. And how tightly can we get software to work with the network.
I haven't got any insight to share on this.
There's lots of Linux and open-source work being done which will be disruptive. I'm not sure that open source will ultimately be the model that everyone uses, but it certainly is disruptive. It is good, as it should get them to move along a bit faster. Also, we've just invested in a new supercomputing company -- maybe they'll have the answer.
What do you think about 3Com's alliance with Huawei?
I only recently became aware of Huawei -- it's a multi-billion dollar company I wasn't aware of.
This is an assault on Cisco -- bringing routing products to market that are much cheaper than Cisco's. Up to five times cheaper, in fact. OK, they have some headaches but at that price some people are prepared to put up with that. Companies will have to work out if it works for them. It's a really great initiative, but will it work? I'm not sure yet. Is a 500 percent price improvement enough to get someone to switch from Cisco to Huawei?
Sony used to be seen as cheap junk, and now it makes....well, high-end junk. I'm not saying Huawei is junk, but the perception is that it sells Chinese knockoffs of Cisco kit. The perception of Sony changed - maybe could the same happen to Huawei?
Which technologies in the networking space do you think are destined to remain niche or are outright losers?
There's a bunch. In the last couple of years there have been a lot of 802.11 start-ups, offering 802.11 security, management or quality-of-service. But they are different companies, and that's the flaw because you want an 802.11 system that includes all these things.
Another [area for losers] is optical components. In the bubble, approximately 900 new companies launched offering optical component products. When one show up in our [Polaris Venture's] office, we say "not another one", and then we're kind and we explain that "we're waiting for the other 900 to go bust before we launch a new one".
Also Web services. It's a buzz word, and we have backed some Web services companies, but we are getting to the point now where we are tired of them.
These are still promising areas, but sometimes there are just too many companies.
Are there enough engineers on the board of networking companies in general?
No there aren't, but the trend won't turn around and that's because of the way politicians have over-reacted to the scandals of the bubble -- by the way, this is a US-specific answer. Europe is probably two years behind.
Laws are being constructed which mean company boards must be filled with accountants and lawyers. It doesn't leave much room for engineers, and that's bad. There should be more engineers on the board of companies, but the way things are going they will all be retired accountants and lawyers. Most board meetings are just CYA [cover your ass].
Most companies won't go public, just so they can avoid the morass of over-regulation. Others will find a way of running themselves where lawyers and accountants do what they must do, away from the overall guidance of the company.
Of course, it's not just engineers. You also need sales, marketing, a couple of visionaries.
But aren't visionaries the first to get fired?
The reason I'm nervous of doing this kind of visionary talk is that when you run a company and they describe you as a visionary, you won't be running the company much longer.
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